There’s a theory for tipping teams in Ultimate competitions, known I think as ‘the AFDA Number Average’ theory, that floats around Australian Ultimate.
The theory goes that if you add up the AFDA numbers of players in each team in a league or tournament, and then average them, the team with the lowest average is most likely to win the league or tournament, because they are obviously the hardest of the hard core in terms of experience.
So here’s the theory applied to this season of the BPL, as determined by the registered players as of a couple of days ago:
1st Dojo Mojo – average AFDA number of 3990
Helped by Phil and Dave’s sub 1000’s, a bunch of guys in the 1000’s (you can see how the Dojo have stayed a unit over the years), and nobody over 10,000.
2nd Rawhide – average of 4122
Helped by Fergs and Flan’s sub 250’s, although they have the most recent joiner of the AFDA in new Stu, who's coming in at over 11,000 …
3rd UQ Lovers – 6018
Piers Truter (sub-35) and Geoff Spurling (sub-125) – I salute you as the longest-continuous AFDA members in the BPL. Everyone knows that Piers has been around forever, but not many have heard Geoff's tales of kayaking over to UQ from West End to play in the old days.
4th Messy Buggers – 6627
Jason Ray of course, in the 180’s helps.
5th Slippery Buggers - 7611
As we keep saying, Notty is the best.
6th UQ Passion – 8336
Johnny Mac and Nathan are the only guys under 8,000 in this team! Whiskey tango foxtrot!?
What are YOUR tips for this season??
5 comments:
I'd like to see that formula applied to last seasons BPL to see how accurate it was.
Mike
Here's the link to last season's rego site if someone's got a calculator and fifteen minutes ;)
http://www.afda.com/rego/showdivision.php?divisionid=612
Rawhide 3817
Crusty 5937
lovers 6473
Fresh 7292
Passion 7554
Dojo 7567
i dont think your system works
I think that the afda numbers sum is proportional to the number of points scored by a team in the season. As is average height of a team (except in Japan's case when height is replaced with awesome speed and agility)
Jangles I find it very hard to believe that Dojo went from the most inexperienced (avg - 7567???)team in 2007, to the most experienced team in 2008 (3990). I think your numbers are out with out looking at the roster.
So I think the numbers are a "fair" indicator of the last 2007 season. What I think would also be interesting is if you took the average of the middle two quartiles of team AFDA numbers, thus removing the rookies and over-the-hill vet, who can often play like rookies...
As for my tip this season - I think Dojo are going to be very hard to beat.
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